PEACE IN THE MIDST OF THE FINANCIAL STORM
By Carlos A. Cedillo
* Introduction to the financial meltdown
* The Subprime Mortgage Crisis and its effect on US & global economy
* Comfort and hope for those who are feeling anxiety & stress
* New global financial infrastructure
* Preparing for the future by being thrifty & frugal
* Common sense principals for times of financial crisis
US ECONOMY ON THE BRINK
In July of 2007 an ominous economic report surfaced in the news media headlines… it was called the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Most of us didn’t know what this was at the time… but soon this economic phenomenon began to spread and in 2008 took on astronomical dimensions, adversely affecting US and world economies. By mid September the economic condition of the US had turned critical and America watched in shock as its financial foundations began to crumble.
The Subprime Mortgage Crisis and its effect on US & Global economy
In its beginnings the subprime mortgage crisis swept across the United States causing mortgage foreclosure on over a million houses. Nearly 1.3 million in 2007 and in May 2007 it jumped to 90% more than the previous year. (CNBC-May 2007).
WASHINGTON, July 8, 2008- Faced with record-high foreclosure rates, the Bush administration has been scrambling to keep people from losing their homes, but many are beyond help, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday. Later he stated that 1.5 million home foreclosures started in 2007, and some economists estimate there will be about 2.5 million foreclosures begun this year.
What caused the foreclosures?
Simply put, the subprime mortgage crisis started because of the home loans given to borrowers with poor or sub-standard credit ratings. These people’s economies were delicately balanced and when the first personal crisis emerged, losing a job, a divorce or an accident, they went into a financial tailspin. This coupled to a few hard moves by the Fed on interest rates and other factors made it difficult to meet their house payments and foreclosure was the inevitable result.
Cause and effect
Why would banks encourage people to buy homes they can't afford, taking out loans they can't repay? And why would this sort of behavior have international repercussions? Journalist David Leonhardt explains in a New York Times article:
Extracts from the article:
How is it that a mess concentrated in one part of the mortgage business—subprime loans—has frozen the credit markets, sent stock markets gyrating, caused the collapse of [the fifth largest investment bank] Bear Stearns, left the economy on the brink of the worst recession in a generation, and forced the Federal Reserve to take its boldest action since the Depression?
Let's go back to the beginning. It really started in 1998, when large numbers of people decided that real estate had become a bargain. At the same time, Wall Street was making it easier for buyers to get loans. It was transforming the mortgage business from a local one to a global one, in which investors from almost anywhere could pool money to lend.
Those same global investors demanded good returns. Wall Street had an answer: subprime mortgages.
Because these loans go to people stretching to afford a house, they come with higher interest rates—even if they're disguised by low initial rates—and thus higher returns. The mortgages were then sliced into pieces and bundled into investments, often known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. Once bundled, different types of mortgages could be sold to different groups of investors.
Investors then increased their returns through leverage. They made $100 million bets with only $1 million of their own money and $99 million in debt. If the value of the investment rose to just $101 million, the investors would double their money.
(Wikipidia- In finance, leverage is using given resources in such a way that the potential positive or negative outcome is magnified. It generally refers to using borrowed funds, or debt, so as to attempt to increase the returns to equity.)
All these investments, of course, were highly risky. Higher returns on investments almost always come with greater risk. But people—by "people," I'm referring here to Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Bernanke, the top executives of almost every Wall Street firm and a majority of American homeowners—decided that the usual rules didn't apply because home prices nationwide had never fallen before.
The American home seemed like such a sure bet that a huge portion of the global financial system ended up owning a piece of it. That left them on the hook when homeowners who had taken out a wishful-thinking mortgage could no longer get out of it by flipping their house for a profit.
Many of these bets [by banks and other investors] were not huge, but were so highly leveraged that any losses became magnified. If that $100 million investment I described above were to lose just $1 million of its value, the investor who put up only $1 million would lose everything.
(end of article)
Economic crisis don’t just happen
It’s important to know that the economic markets don’t just go up and down of their own accord—it’s not as if the stock market has a life of its own. Through manipulation of the world’s money—cleverly orchestrated financial crashes are perpetuated. The subprime mortgage woes would not have resulted had the financial chiefs not made the economic moves that brought it about. Through manipulation of the financial system, huge amounts of money are falling into the hands of a few, while stock holders, corporations and financial institutions have gone bankrupt. Even thought huge amounts have been spent in extravagant bail-out rescue programs—it’s just adding more debt to the problem and tax payers are left with the broken dishes.
The Subprime loans—a goldmine for lenders
Subprime lenders didn’t sit on their loans—they began to sell them to investment banks and other big financial national and international investors who saw a goldmine in the business of high-interest rate subprime loans. Eventually this business of subprime loans and debt became a $1.5 trillion market for US and global market investors who were lured with the high returns the subprime offered.
The Subprime Crisis Ripple Effect
The Subprime game worked as long as the borrowers were keeping up their payments, but as soon as they failed to make the payments— what looked like a goldmine for all those who had invested in these high interest rate loans—resulted in a wave of foreclosure crisis around the nation, provoking an international credit crisis.
After the first initial Subprime shock wave that left almost a million homeless because of foreclosure, there followed financial aftershocks which came on stronger than the first. In an unprecedented manner, mortgage lending corporations and banks that that were holding millions in subprime debt began to lose financial stability and declared bankruptcy.
*New Century Financial Corporation- April 4th, 2007- New Century Goes Bankrupt; The company rode the U.S. housing boom to become the largest independent mortgage lender to subprime borrowers, only to collapse as interest rates rose and home prices fell.
*Country Wide – Jan. 11, 2008; CHARLOTTE, N.C. - Bank of America said Friday it will buy Countrywide Financial for $4.1 billion in stock, a deal that rescues the country’s biggest mortgage lender after it went bankrupt.
*Bear Stearns- March 17, 2008; Bear Stearns was bought out by JP Morgan for $2/share. Just on Friday, they were trading at $30/share and had a 50% drop in share price that day. I am predicting that there is going to be a massive meltdown in the financial sector tomorrow as a market reaction, which will cause a ripple effect and panicked investors, which will result in the stock market crashing by about 300 to 500 points by the end of the day.
*Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae - September 9, 2008; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a $5.2 Trillion Bankruptcy. Allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to collapse would have been akin to letting Japan or the United Kingdom go bankrupt. Global economic leaders say even those unimaginable scenarios would have paled beside the fallout from a Fannie/Freddie implosion.
*Lehman Brothers – September 15, 2008; Stocks dropped dramatically -- with the Dow closing down 504.48 points -- after 158-year-old brokerage firm Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy this morning and the other Wall Street stalwart, Merrill Lynch, was sold to Bank of America for $50 billion.
*AIG – September 16, 2008; There isn’t really a precedent for this strange tale… but tonight, apparently, the Federal Reserve has taken ownership of 80% of AIG (the 3rd largest institution in America) in exchange for an $80 billion bridge loan. The reason, according to various sources, is that AIG is “too big to fail” and would cause systemic failure to the international banking system if it were allowed to fail (it has more than $1 trillion in assets, worldwide).
*Washington Mutual – September 25, 2008; NEW YORK – JPMorgan Chase & Co. Inc. came to the rescue of Washington Mutual Inc. Thursday, buying the thrift's banking assets after WaMu was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in the largest failure ever of a U.S. bank. This is the second time in six months that JPMorgan Chase has taken over a major financial institution crippled by bad bets in the mortgage market.
Mother of all Bailouts
On September 19 of this year, the world was shocked by the announcement made by US Secretary of Treasury, Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke, Chief of the Federal Reserve Board—they proposed an unprecedented bail-out plan of $700 billion dollars to avoid an imminent meltdown of the entire US financial system!
Dow plunges 777 points after bailout fails
When this first bailout plan was rejected by congress, the Dow Jones had a dramatic plunge of 777 points, the most it had ever fallen in its history. Later when the Senate passed the second bailout plan, to everyone’s dismay-- the stock market took another fall with the Dow Jones having its worst week since July of 2002 and to top it off, unemployment showed an increase. Some economic experts are saying the cash injections by the Fed and central banks were too little and too late and even the mega bailout program may not be enough to stop the downward momentum of the ailing US economy.
US & European banking bail-out rescue plan fails
October 15, 2008- The optimism that followed the various US and European banking rescue plans evaporated as investors digested the impact of slowing economic growth. The Dow Jones fell a whopping 733 points, heightening fears of a deep recession in the world’s largest economy.
WORDS OF COMFORT & HOPE
We’re living in a time of great change and transformation in our society and personal way of living-- and for some it’s not going to be easy. Many have lived their lives establishing certain routines and have become accustomed to easy access to almost anything they need or want. People’s life styles give them security, their house and jobs give them stability. Being able to drive your own car whenever and wherever you want is a privilege taken for granted. So if any of these foundation pieces are weakened or removed—if there is any abrupt change in your daily lives, work or supply of needs—and you’re beginning to feel disorientated, worried or even fearful… then the following message is for you.
There’s light at the end of the tunnel! All is not lost, and even if you have to make changes and modifications in your economy, your work and home, you can not only survive this ordeal, but you can get yourself back on your feet. However, you may need to let the God Factor be one of those changes-- in case you haven’t already given Him room to work in your situation. If you haven’t seen God as a major force that can bring needed answers, solutions and supply into your life—then now is an ideal time to let Him show you what He can do for you and in the process discover He’s got the best bail-out program for your personal situation.
We can take these changes because we have an Anchor that holds us steadfast and sure! We have a Rock that is always solid that we can always trust! … We have that Rock, we have that Anchor that keeps us safe and secure all the time, no matter what the waves are like, the constantly changing sea and constantly changing life we live.
“God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble, therefore will we not fear, though the earth be removed, and through the mountains thereof be carried into the midst of the sea; Though the waters thereof roar and be troubled, though the mountains shake with the swelling thereof.” --Psalms 46: 1-3
We have Someone in Whom we can rest reassured, eternally secure, knowing that we don't have anything to even worry about! He's going to solve every problem and always meet the need, whatever it is, and keep us safely wherever we are, whatever we're doing!
We have that Anchor! We have that Rock to hold on to!-- Our faith!--The Lord! So it hardly matters what happens around us on the constantly changing sea of life, it doesn't bother us that much. We can survive it and surmount it and we can live on! We know we've lived through past changes and we can live through these, because the Lord is without change!
So hold on to the Lord! "I am the Lord, I change not! Jesus Christ the same yesterday, and today, and forever!"--Mal.3:6; Heb.13:8. He remains the same--faithful, always trustworthy, always there, always solving every problem, answering every need! Sometimes it doesn't matter how secure a life you appear to lead, nothing is secure and frequently it all blows up!— However, it’s in God’s power to change that, we can have that feeling of constant security that surmounts anything else in life! So the most important step to take now is to believe in Jesus, accept Him as your Rock and Savior-- he can stabilize your life, no matter what storms assail you.
“Surely he shall deliver you from the snare of the enemy… he shall cover you with his feathers and under his wings shall you trust… You will not be afraid for the terror by night; nor for the arrows shot at you… nor for the destruction that that comes in the heat of the day… A thousand shall fall at your side, and ten thousand on your right, but you shall remain safe… Because you have made the Lord your refuge… there shall no evil come to you… for he shall give you angels to protect you wherever you go.” --Psalm 91
For those that call on God, no matter what happens or where they go or where they live or what the conditions may be, the Lord's still there and He'll always keep them no matter what! That's the wonderful thing about trusting the Lord!--When you don't know what's going to happen, you just know the Lord's going to somehow work everything out just the way He wants it. He always does! He never fails! He’s the solid rock foundation and if you’re holding on to Him, you can’t be moved!
New global financial infrastructure
Things have gotten to a bad state in the world’s economy. The US and financially crippled countries are seeing the need for a new international monetary order to replace the present monetary system. They’re desperately grasping for anything or anyone who can save the globe from a general chain-reaction collapse of the entire international financial-monetary and economic system.
In the World Economic Forum on the Middle East from May of this year, one of the hot topics was the Subprime mortgage crisis and the question was raised; Are we indeed witnessing a transition to a new global financial system?
On October 29, Ibero-American presidents united for a top-level Summit in El Salvador. At the top of their agenda was: To express the need for stronger international cooperation and for a new global financial order.
By November 15, 2008, most of the World’s leaders will be uniting in the US to seek a solution to the global financial emergency and seek ideas for a new economic arrangement for the world.
What leader has the ability & genius to design a new economic system?
Question: So far all the attempts to rescue the world’s economies have faltered. All the bail-out plans have failed—is there really anyone amongst today’s world leaders who has the ability and genius to design a new economic system to replace the old one that’s become obsolete? Not just another system that will benefit big finance or Wall Street, but one that will also benefit the Main Street working classes and businesses?
Answer: Yes, there will come on the scene a brilliant Statesman who will possess the ability, wisdom, knowledge and boldness to put forth a new financial infrastructure, and with perfect eloquence, convince the world to adopt his new plan. This new global leader will see the need to make a total overhaul of the present mechanisms of global finance, doing away with paper currencies and credit cards, both of which have proven inadequate and obsolete for the needs of a fast moving computerized global society.
With the help of advanced electronic and computer technology he will put forth a new system to facilitate financial transactions using a micro chip implant for humans. This means that a person could take care of all his purchases at the supermarket with one wave of his micro chipped hand over the scanner and do the same to pay his phone and utility bills. With this same unique electronic process, he would be able to both buy and sell a house or car. He would have quick entry through airport security checks, as scanners at the entrance would trace the minute chip implant in his forehead, giving him immediate clearance. The security features would be outstanding as there would be no cash to steal, no credit cards to clone or on line banking accounts for con artists to target. The new global monetary format would have the capacity to chip every human on the planet and link them to a single computer system— a monitored controlled grid.
This amazing piece of information comes from bible prophecy. The bible calls this political figure, “the Antichrist.” This of course is not a very flattering name for someone who portends to bring about economic salvation to the planet, but it’s the name God has given him, a name that’s the antithesis of the real Christ. One can then conclude that if he’s the Antichrist, he must be getting his signals from a different source than Jesus did. Obviously this Antichrist is not the Hollywood version depicted with nothing but horror and ghastly beings from the nether world and frightening everyone to death. When he comes on the scene, he’ll be seen as winsome, influential and with flatteries win the masses. However, as Jesus was God in human flesh, so, in parody, the Antichrist will be the Devil in the flesh, minus the horns, tail and pitchfork.
The bottom line is that there’s a catch to all the goody goody stuff the Antichrist will be bringing about during the first years of his reign. On one hand he does manage to resolve the economic, social and political problems of the world, but on the other hand he eventually clamps down on all freedoms and establishes himself as supreme ruler over the world. He sets himself up as God, and even his superb economic plan comes laden with more toxic content than the subprime mortgage CDOs. —2 Thessalonians 2:4. The bible warns that those who receive the Antichrist’s micro-chip in their forehead or hand-- Revelation 13: 16,17 (mark of the beast), will be subject to the horrendous plagues and wrath of God that will ravish the earth in the future.-- Revelation 14:8-11. So the safest route is to not take the chip (mark of the beast), and to trust that God will continue to protect you and supply all your needs. —Philippians 4:19
Society at large will not be aware of the dark identity of this “brilliant statesman” when he arrives with the all-solution package to man’s ills. Therefore it would behoove all the readers of this article to take heed and not be deceived when this infamous personage makes his appearance on the world scene. Another clue to his appearance will be that he’ll sign some kind of peace treaty between countries, and possibly give recognition to the religious leaders of those countries; as it’s referred to in the book of Daniel as the “Holy Covenant.” –- Daniel 11:30b
According to bible prophecy he will sign this Holy Pact to put him in power and this will last for a period of 7 years. During his first 3&1/2 years he’ll be consolidating his power. –Daniel 9:27b (Week=7yrs) Then in the midst of the 7 years, he suddenly breaks the pact and declares himself as the maximum world authority-- as God-- demanding worship of himself.—2 Thessalonians 2:4 The good news is that at the end of the 7 years, Jesus returns and overthrows the Antichrist in the future battle of Armageddon. Jesus then sets Himself up as the world President or King, with His own government to rule the world for 1,000 years in peace with no more crime, wars or hate, killing or pollution.—Dan. 2:44 & Rev. 20:4
Does this sound incredible?
Some may view the preceding account as some incredible fantasy—someone’s imagination gone wild with apocalyptic madness—but this is no madness… this is for real. Perhaps it won't happen right away… we may at first see a few of these new global economic plans set up-- and fail… but we’re seeing the beginning stages of important prophetic events and ultimately the Antichrist’s economic plan will fall into place.
Consider another prophecy and its fulfillment hundreds of years into the future:
In 603 bc, the king of Babylon thought his empire was indestructible until he had a dream. The prophet Daniel came forth to explain the dream which involved an image with a head of gold, then shoulders and arms, belly, legs and feet. Daniel’s understanding of the dream was an incredible prophetic interpretation, predicting the future kingdom which was to overthrow Babylon-- Medo-Persia—but he didn’t stop there. He went on to show the King the next empires in line that would come to power—Greece, Rome, and yet another. A quick glance at the history books confirms the veracity of these prophecies as we see the names of the above empires, coming into world dominion, one right after the other. Now that was an astounding feat… to predict what kingdoms would be governing the civilized part of the future world, hundreds of years before becoming reality and taking their place in the annals of world history. –Daniel 2: 31-43- In the following chapters of the book of Daniel, many details are given, revealing which empires were to come after Babylon. It even goes as far as revealing the names of some and gives descriptions of their kings.
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Preparing for the future by being thrifty & frugal
*For the time being, the name of the game is; wind-down. Find ways to cut expenses, turn off lights you don’t use, remove light bulbs that are not essential or reduce the wattage.
*If you don’t already have your expenses budgeted, make a monthly budget now and stick to it.
*When you go to the supermarket, work with a shopping list of only your needed items and don’t buy extras or enticing stuff that yells out, “Buy me, buy me!”
*Look for bargains. Right now both food and commodity stores are having problems with too much stock and are offering very low sell-out prices.
*Monitor your usage of water; don’t just leave the shower running continuously or wash clothes unless needed. And it’s ok to let the grass be greener on the other side of the fence—if it helps reduce your water bill.
*Limit your vehicle trips. Line up your shopping and outings with other needed trips to save on gas. Join car pools.
*Avoid buying new electronic gadgets or appliances--- fix the ones you have and keep using them.
*Remember the golden rule of good finances; “If you don’t have the money, don’ buy it.” Avoid further debt like the plague. Don’t go out buying things and expecting to get the money further up ahead— don’t bank on the future. Learn to live within your income.
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Other common sense principals for times of financial crisis
* The wise thing to do now financially is to spread out your bets as much as possible on various currencies‚ having some good hard currencies, as well as some local currency, as well as some gold, as well as the real tangible assets that you need in time of trouble.
* Remember, the basic necessities of man are food, clothing, and shelter. These are things of real value to human life. Even though the value of real estate in the United States has gone down drastically, it doesn't mean that real estate doesn't have value, because even if it has devalued on the market, it has an intrinsic value of giving you a place to stay—as long as you own it and its not mortgaged.
* The dollar is climbing now, but it will eventually lose most of its value against other currencies. When that begins to happen, if you're in a place where you have to use dollars or keep some of your funds in dollars, then it makes sense to keep a certain amount of those dollars to make your purchases. But if you have funds above your current or near-term financial needs, it would be wise to put them into another currency‚ or into gold, or even into silver. Or, invest in things of real value, such as equipment you'll need, food that you could store up, water that you could store. There are important things, things of real value that will come to the fore even more as time goes on and the economic system collapses—whether those stores are goods, food, gasoline, property, gold, silver, or other currencies.
* The dollar is going to be greatly downsized. However, it will take a while, so you don't necessarily want to dump all of your dollars right now. Just be sure they're not all you're depending on, and get ready to make the transition into a new worldwide financial and economic system.
* So as far as your currency goes, have local currency, have some hard currency—that which is strong‚ relatively stable‚ and retains its value well where you are—and have some gold if you can afford it. Have a couple of hard currencies. Spread your funds between different banks, and between different investments if necessary. Make your financial foundation as diversified and strong as possible.
* The euro is based on national economies that will be more steady, stable, and enduring than that of the U.S. in the future. The dollar, on the other hand, has a shaky foundation, one which is based on debt and is eaten through with problems, but it enjoys a great measure of faith from investors. So for now the dollar is climbing in value and the euro is declining relative to it.
This condition will not last, however. The roles will be reversed again, as they were in the months leading up to this economic upheaval, and the dollar will begin to decline and the euro will begin to rise. When this happens‚ and it begins to take on momentum, then it would be a good and appropriate time for those who hold an abundance of dollars or who have invested in dollars to begin switching over to the euro—although much depends on the person and their situation…
* Stocks and financial markets are dangerous places to keep your money right now, because there is no intrinsic value in stocks and shares. I'm not saying to pull all of your money out of investments, stocks, and bonds, because some are going to make it. But you need to stick to the companies that have a solid basis of value—not necessarily a solid price on the stock market, but rather a solid basis as a company.
* Look at the food companies, the energy companies, the alternative energy companies. Look at the oil companies. Look at the water companies. Look at companies or organizations that are based on things of real value and that have real assets. Don't necessarily look at the stock price; look at the fundamentals on which the company is organized and place your bets in that direction.
From Jesus
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